When will the Turnaround Occur in the Real Estate Market?
My business card reads Realtor, not Psychic. Nobody knows when the turnaround will occur in the real estate market for sure. It’s been said that you don’t know when you’ve reached the bottom until things start to go back up again. On a national level, I’ve heard “experts” say the end of the first quarter. I’ve heard middle of the year. Economists at the National Association of Home Builders semi annual forecast conference suggested that home prices will hit bottom in the middle of next year as a result of increasingly affordable prices, new home incentives, fewer housing starts, declining interest rates and pent-up demand (Wall Steet Journal, June Fletcher 10/29/08). We really are blessed in Atlanta. Recent data from ChartMaster is positive suggesting a turnaround is ocurring right now in metro Atlanta.
Home inventory in the metro area appears to have reached a bottom. The months supply of homes has come down every month since July of 2008 after a steady climb at the beginning of the year. Do you see the bottom?
The rate of decline in number of homes sold vs. the same quarter one year earlier accelerated during early 2007. However, the rate of decline from the previous year reversed after the first quarter of this year. Do you see the bottom?
All we can do is deal with the hands we are dealt. Make lemonade out of lemons. Make mole hills out of mountains. Put on our big boy drawers…Whatever cliche you want to use. The good news is that it can’t get much worse. The election will most likely bring some stability to our economy, no matter who is elected. Rates will go up a little further in the very short term and then fall in the long term once the dust settles in my opinion. The government is trying to spur on refinances of troubled mortgages, which should help stave off a percentage of the foreclosures rushing through the market. In the meantime, be opportunistic if you are a buyer or investor, and if you are a seller, play the percentages and think like a buyer.
As always if we can help you in any way, it would be our pleasure.
